TL;DR
- •UK house prices are projected to continue falling as mortgage rates rise, largely due to Middle East geopolitical tensions.
- •This shift is expected to affect mortgage affordability and buyer confidence..
- •This shift is expected to affect mortgage affordability and buyer confidence.
As of May 2026, UK house prices are projected to continue declining as mortgage rates rise, largely influenced by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. This shift is expected to affect mortgage affordability and buyer confidence. The latest UK house price index from Halifax, part of Lloyds – the UK’s largest mortgage lender, reveals that property prices fell for the second consecutive month in April, with a 0.1% decrease to £299,313, following a 0.5% drop in March. The annual rate of house price growth has also slowed to 0.4% from 0.8%.
Impact on Different Buyer Scenarios
First-Time Buyers
For a first-time buyer with a £200,000 mortgage at 90% LTV, the rising mortgage rates could mean an increase in monthly payments. For instance, if the mortgage rate increases from 2.5% to 3%, the monthly repayment would rise from £897 to £948, an additional £51 per month or £612 annually. This increase could affect affordability and potentially delay plans for homeownership.
Remortgagers
For homeowners looking to remortgage, the impact could be significant. A homeowner with a £250,000 repayment mortgage at 75% LTV, previously enjoying a 2% rate, could see their monthly payments increase from £1,064 to £1,185 if the rate rises to 3%. This equates to an extra £121 per month or £1,452 annually, which could strain household budgets.
Landlords
Landlords with interest-only mortgages will also feel the impact. Consider a landlord with a £200,000 interest-only mortgage. If the rate increases from 3% to 3.75%, their monthly payments would increase from £500 to £625. This adds an extra £125 per month or £1,500 per year, potentially affecting rental yields and profitability.
Market Context
The current base rate stands at 3.75%, indicating a rising trend in mortgage rates. Six months ago, the base rate was 3.5%, and a year ago, it was 3.25%. The upward trajectory of the base rate typically translates to higher mortgage rates, which in turn puts downward pressure on house prices. This is reflected in the recent falls in house prices, as reported by Halifax. A year ago, the average UK house price was £305,000, showing a decrease of approximately 1.8% over the past 12 months. This decline is expected to continue if the mortgage rates keep climbing.
Frequently Asked Questions
How will rising mortgage rates affect my monthly repayments?
An increase in mortgage rates will typically result in higher monthly repayments. For example, a 0.5% rate increase on a £200,000 mortgage could add approximately £50 to your monthly repayments.
What is the current base rate?
The current base rate, as set by the Bank of England, is 3.75% as of April 2026.
How do geopolitical tensions affect mortgage rates?
Geopolitical tensions can create economic uncertainty, which can influence interest rates. In this case, tensions in the Middle East are causing an upward pressure on UK mortgage rates.
What is the outlook for UK house prices?
Given the current market conditions and rising mortgage rates, UK house prices are expected to continue falling in the coming months. The annual rate of house price growth has slowed to 0.4% from 0.8%.
About David Sampson
David Sampson writes about the UK mortgage market for Mortgage118, covering specialist lending, market trends, and practical advice for borrowers. All content is reviewed for accuracy against FCA guidelines and current market data.